Track Record

HITBrier 0.035

Early-confirmed: FDX hit target below 279.84 on 2026-09-24. Current price: 279.54 (started at 291.50).

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

SHORT correctFDX

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $279.84, 4% from $291.50 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 81% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.035.

Elevated Hormuz escalation probability (67%) raises fuel-cost and freight-disruption risk for logistics names; combined with broad risk-off equity regime this pressures cyclical transports.

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$279.84

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FedEx (FDX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $296.39, 5% from $311.99 at creation)

market35%HIT

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $309.62, 4% from $322.52 at creation)

market38%HIT

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FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $279.84, 4% from $291.50 at creation)

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