Track Record

HITBrier 0.388

Early-confirmed: FDX hit target below 309.62 on 2026-09-09. Current price: 309.19 (started at 322.52).

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Market

SHORT correctFDX

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $309.62, 4% from $322.52 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 38% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.388.

Confirmed Houthi Red Sea attacks and Hormuz shipping disruption (tanker rerouting costs, slowed transit per Reuters data) raise freight/logistics cost pressure on global logistics carriers.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$309.62

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FedEx (FDX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $296.39, 5% from $311.99 at creation)

market35%HIT

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $279.84, 4% from $291.50 at creation)

market81%HIT

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FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $309.62, 4% from $322.52 at creation)

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