HITBrier 0.422

Early-confirmed: FDX hit target below 296.39 on 2026-09-21. Current price: 292.87 (started at 311.99).

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctFDX

FedEx (FDX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $296.39, 5% from $311.99 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 35% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.422.

Confirmed Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping disruptions (multiple confirmed harassment/mine/attack incidents) raise freight rerouting costs and transit times, pressuring logistics-sector margins; FDX already confirmed a prior 4% decline in the preceding window under the same catalyst.

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Price Target$296.39

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $309.62, 4% from $322.52 at creation)

market38%HIT

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $279.84, 4% from $291.50 at creation)

market81%HIT

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FedEx (FDX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $296.39, 5% from $311.99 at creation)

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