MISSBrier 0.185

Data-resolved: XLU moved from 42.39 to 39.51 (-6.79%) during 2026-09-13 to 2026-09-27. Target: above 43.5. Target not reached. High was 42.44.

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLU

XLU will close above $43.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 43% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-27. Brier score 0.185.

Defensive sector rotation is typical in confirmed risk-off regimes (F&G 38, SPY/QQQ deep oversold with no fundamental catalyst per thesis); utilities historically outperform cyclicals during wartime equity stress even as broad indices remain pressured.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Price Target$43.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLU will close below $40.70 on at least one trading day within 30 days as a Fed hawkish-hold outcome pressures rate-sensitive utility valuations.

market41%HIT

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will close above $43.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market47%MISS

Utilities ETF XLU will outperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market28%MISS

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XLU will close above $43.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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