MISSBrier 0.217

Data-resolved: XLU moved from 42.52 to 39.36 (-7.43%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: above 43.8. Target not reached. High was 42.96.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLU

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will close above $43.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 47% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.217.

Confirmed risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ capitulation-level RSI) typically drives defensive sector rotation into low-beta utilities; target represents roughly 1x the typical 14d sector-ETF move (~3%) from current $42.52.

Probability: 47%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$43.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLU will close above $43.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

XLU will close below $40.70 on at least one trading day within 30 days as a Fed hawkish-hold outcome pressures rate-sensitive utility valuations.

market41%HIT

Utilities ETF XLU will outperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market28%MISS

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XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will close above $43.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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