MISSBrier 0.077

Creation (2026-09-06): SPY=770.19, XLU=43.08. End of window (2026-09-18): SPY close=761.69, XLU close=41.10. SPY return=-1.104%. XLU return=(41.10-43.08)/43.08=-4.596%. Relative outperformance = XLU% - SPY% = -4.596-(-1.104)=-3.49% (XLU actually UNDERperformed SPY, opposite of predicted outperformance). Required: XLU outperform SPY by >=3%. Actual is -3.49% (underperformance), therefore threshold NOT met and direction incorrect.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLU

Utilities ETF XLU will outperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 28% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.077.

Confirmed risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ technical capitulation) typically drives defensive sector rotation into utilities amid an 80% geopolitical escalation risk score with no resolved catalyst.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will close above $43.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market47%MISS

XLU will close above $43.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

XLU will close below $40.70 on at least one trading day within 30 days as a Fed hawkish-hold outcome pressures rate-sensitive utility valuations.

market41%HIT

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Utilities ETF XLU will outperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

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