MISSBrier 0.151

Data-resolved: COIN moved from 184.64 to 194.25 (5.20%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 195.72. Target not reached. High was 196.21.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctCOIN

COIN will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $195.72, 6% from $184.64 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.151.

Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium is bullish (comprehensive legislation, institutional accumulation, 2 equilibria, 70% confidence); BTC's 14-day expected move is ±8.7%, and COIN typically amplifies BTC moves.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$195.72

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Coinbase (COIN) will close at least 8% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $169.87, 8% from $184.64 at creation)

market36%HIT

COIN (Coinbase) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $203.96, 5% from $194.25 at creation)

market85%

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COIN will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $195.72, 6% from $184.64 at creation)

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