MISSBrier 0.722

Data-resolved: COIN, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-21 through 2026-10-05. Target: above 203.96. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 185.60 (2026-10-05).

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Market

LONG wrongCOIN

COIN (Coinbase) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $203.96, 5% from $194.25 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 85% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-06. Brier score 0.722.

Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium (bullish, 2 equilibria, institutional accumulation) already confirmed via BTC clearing $81,500 and $80,000 thresholds within 14 days; COIN typically amplifies BTC moves as a levered crypto-equity proxy.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 511d ago
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$203.96

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Coinbase (COIN) will close at least 8% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $169.87, 8% from $184.64 at creation)

market36%HIT

COIN will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $195.72, 6% from $184.64 at creation)

market39%MISS

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COIN (Coinbase) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $203.96, 5% from $194.25 at creation)

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