Track Record

HITBrier 0.413

Early-confirmed: COIN hit target below 169.87 on 2026-09-16. Current price: 164.51 (started at 184.64).

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

SHORT correctCOIN

Coinbase (COIN) will close at least 8% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $169.87, 8% from $184.64 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 36% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.413.

BTC expected-move band (14d ±8.7%, 72747-86628) combined with risk-off equity correlation spillover; crypto-linked equities carry amplified beta to BTC volatility during wartime regime stress.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$169.87

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

COIN will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $195.72, 6% from $184.64 at creation)

market39%MISS

COIN (Coinbase) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $203.96, 5% from $194.25 at creation)

market85%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Coinbase (COIN) will close at least 8% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $169.87, 8% from $184.64 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture