EEM will close below $61.75 on at least one trading day by November 13, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-30 at 56% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-13.

Derived from: the risk-off thesis, elevated-volatility outlook, and the Taiwan Strait Bayesian assessment's 53% escalation probability. The assessment calls the likely market impact low, limiting the target.

Probability

56%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Nov 13in 14d

Made

Oct 30

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.