MISSBrier 0.131

Data-resolved: LMT moved from 536.15 to 528.51 (-1.42%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: below 514.7. Target not reached. Low was 515.60.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

SHORT correctLMT

Lockheed Martin (LMT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $514.70, 4% from $536.15 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 36% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.131.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium shows a stable, bullish 'negotiate from strength' resolution (78% confidence, 50% bargaining range), which if it advances would reduce near-term defense-spending escalation narratives and pressure defense-sector valuations.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$514.7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

LMT will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $546.29, 4% from $525.28 at creation)

market45%MISS

LMT (Lockheed Martin) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $545.67, 4% from $524.68 at creation)

market83%

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Lockheed Martin (LMT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $514.70, 4% from $536.15 at creation)

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