Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (gray-zone escalation vs US economic deterrence, fragile 30% coalition stability) plus Hormuz and North Korea provocation cycles (ICBM launch / sanctions escalation Nash equilibrium) sustain defense-sector demand expectations.

Probability: 83%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$545.67

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

Lockheed Martin (LMT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $514.70, 4% from $536.15 at creation)

market36%MISS

LMT will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $546.29, 4% from $525.28 at creation)

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