MISSBrier 0.199

Data-resolved: LMT moved from 525.28 to 533.38 (1.54%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 546.29. Target not reached. High was 543.59.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctLMT

LMT will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $546.29, 4% from $525.28 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.199.

80% overall escalation risk score plus defense-sector convergence signals (Erev Rosh Hashana/UNGA window, Autumnal Equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary) argue for continued defense-equity strength in the wartime regime.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2024d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$546.29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $514.70, 4% from $536.15 at creation)

market36%MISS

LMT (Lockheed Martin) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $545.67, 4% from $524.68 at creation)

market83%MISS

LMT will close at least 3% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 9, 2026 (target above $524.88, 3% from $509.59 at creation)

market60%

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LMT will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $546.29, 4% from $525.28 at creation)

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