MISSBrier 0.141

Data-resolved: XME moved from 114.77 to 109.58 (-4.52%) during 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24. Target: above 119.36. Target not reached. High was 116.86.

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXME

Metals & mining ETF XME will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days, reversing the recently confirmed breakdown (target above $119.36, 4% from $114.77 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.141.

Derived from: recently confirmed XME breakdown below $115.88 (from $119.46) leaving the sector technically oversold; mean-reversion dynamic consistent with the broader oversold-bounce thesis flagged across SPY/QQQ RSI readings.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$119.36

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Metals & mining sector ETF XME will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $115.88, 3% from $119.46 at creation)

market36%HIT

XME (metals & mining ETF) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.20, 4% from $109.58 at creation)

market71%

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Metals & mining ETF XME will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days, reversing the recently confirmed breakdown (target above $119.36, 4% from $114.77 at creation)

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