HITBrier 0.081

Early-confirmed: XME, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-24 through 2026-10-08. Target: below 105.2. Target hit on: 2026-09-29. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Sep 30, 2026

Market

SHORT correctXME

XME (metals & mining ETF) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.20, 4% from $109.58 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 71% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-30. Brier score 0.081.

Derived from: China Property/Stimulus Bayesian equilibrium (mixed, fragile stability, targeted bailout vs. long-recovery positioning) and broader risk-off pressure on industrial metals demand.

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 88d ago
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$105.2

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Metals & mining ETF XME will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days, reversing the recently confirmed breakdown (target above $119.36, 4% from $114.77 at creation)

market38%MISS

Metals & mining sector ETF XME will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $115.88, 3% from $119.46 at creation)

market36%HIT

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XME (metals & mining ETF) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.20, 4% from $109.58 at creation)

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