HITBrier 0.412

Early-confirmed: XME hit target below 115.88 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 115.25 (started at 119.46).

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Market

SHORT correctXME

Metals & mining sector ETF XME will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $115.88, 3% from $119.46 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 36% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.412.

Deep equity capitulation readings (SPY RSI 27.3, QQQ RSI 28.4, both below lower Bollinger Bands) alongside risk-off regime confirmation (Fear & Greed 38) argue for continued pressure on cyclical/growth-linked industrial metals equities pending a China stimulus catalyst that remains only a fragile (30% stability) Bayesian equilibrium.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$115.88

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Metals & mining ETF XME will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days, reversing the recently confirmed breakdown (target above $119.36, 4% from $114.77 at creation)

market38%MISS

XME (metals & mining ETF) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.20, 4% from $109.58 at creation)

market71%

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Metals & mining sector ETF XME will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $115.88, 3% from $119.46 at creation)

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