HITBrier 0.237

Early-confirmed: MRNA hit target below 136.82 on 2026-09-09. Current price: 135.61 (started at 145.55).

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Market

SHORT correctMRNA

Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $136.82, 6% from $145.55 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 51% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-09. Brier score 0.237.

High-beta biotech vulnerable to risk-off deleveraging; XBI-linked wartime capitulation pattern (RSI capitulation across major indices) extends to speculative healthcare names lacking defensive-earnings support.

Probability: 51%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$136.82

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $143.75, 6% from $135.61 at creation)

market38%HIT

Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 7% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $143.26, 7% from $154.04 at creation)

market50%

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Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $136.82, 6% from $145.55 at creation)

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