HITBrier 0.383

Early-confirmed: MRNA hit target above 143.75 on 2026-09-11. Current price: 143.97 (started at 135.61).

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Market

LONG correctMRNA

Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $143.75, 6% from $135.61 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 38% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-12. Brier score 0.383.

Technical mean-reversion logic mirrors the SPY/QQQ oversold-bounce thesis; MRNA's confirmed 6% decline into capitulation territory sets up a distinct short-covering bounce catalyst separate from the fundamental decline already scored.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1712d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$143.75

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $136.82, 6% from $145.55 at creation)

market51%HIT

Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 7% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $143.26, 7% from $154.04 at creation)

market50%

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Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $143.75, 6% from $135.61 at creation)

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