Moderna (MRNA) will close at least 7% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $143.26, 7% from $154.04 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 50% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-03.

MRNA's sharp early-September rally (135->144) sits inside a biotech sector (XBI) experiencing renewed weakness under risk-off conditions; mean-reversion of the prior spike is likely given the sector's failed bounce attempt.

Probability

50%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 3in 4d

Made

Sep 19

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.