MISSBrier 0.237

Data-resolved: DIA moved from 528.03 to 521.23 (-1.29%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16. Target: above 533. Target not reached. High was 527.36.

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

LONG wrongDIA

DIA will close above $533.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 49% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.237.

Technical oversold-bounce case (SPY RSI 27.3, QQQ RSI 28.4 approaching capitulation) extended to blue-chip DIA per the red-team's mean-reversion critique, held to moderate confidence given the thesis's own 88%-confidence bearish framing and lack of a fundamental catalyst.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$533

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) will close below $520.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market30%HIT

DIA will close below $510 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market85%

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DIA will close above $533.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

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