DIA will close above $533.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 49% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.237.
Technical oversold-bounce case (SPY RSI 27.3, QQQ RSI 28.4 approaching capitulation) extended to blue-chip DIA per the red-team's mean-reversion critique, held to moderate confidence given the thesis's own 88%-confidence bearish framing and lack of a fundamental catalyst.
- Probability
- 49%
- Timeframe
- 7 days
- Deadline
- Sep 1613d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.