DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) will close below $520.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 30% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.492.

Confirmed wartime risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, 80% geopolitical escalation risk score) with SPY/QQQ already at capitulation-level RSI and no fundamental catalyst for sustained recovery; DIA's industrial/blue-chip composition carries direct exposure to Taiwan Strait and Hormuz-linked supply chain disruption.

Probability

30%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.