The US Treasury will raise its estimate of privately held net marketable borrowing for October–December 2026 in its November financing announcement, relative to its preceding estimate.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-26 at 38% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-25.

Derived from: the US Treasury Supply Crisis scenario identifies front-loaded short-term borrowing and investor demand for higher term premium.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 25in 30d
Made: Oct 26

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

A commercial merchant vessel will be struck by a missile or armed drone in the Red Sea by November 25, 2026.

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The European Commission will publish a legislative proposal to shorten permitting timelines for new renewable-energy projects by January 23, 2027.

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The US Department of Justice will file a new federal antitrust complaint seeking the divestiture of an Alphabet business by January 23, 2027.

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The US Treasury will raise its estimate of privately held net marketable borrowing for October–December 2026 in its November financing announcement, relative to its preceding estimate.

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