A commercial merchant vessel will be struck by a missile or armed drone in the Red Sea by November 25, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-26 at 32% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-25.

Derived from: the Red Sea Shipping Crisis scenario identifies continuing Houthi support as a shipping risk. No recent vessel strike is established in the supplied signals, limiting confidence.

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 25in 30d
Made: Oct 26

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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A commercial merchant vessel will be struck by a missile or armed drone in the Red Sea by November 25, 2026.

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