HITBrier 0.030

Early-confirmed: MSTR hit target above 166.23 on 2026-09-21. Current price: 168.50 (started at 153.92).

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

LONG correctMSTR

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $166.23, 8% from $153.92 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 83% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.030.

Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity scenario shows 2 bullish equilibria driven by institutional accumulation, corroborated by BTC's confirmed break above $80,000-$82,000 thresholds; MSTR is a levered proxy uncovered in the existing pending prediction map.

Probability: 83%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$166.23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $158.39, 6% from $168.50 at creation)

market82%HIT

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $154.22, 8% from $142.80 at creation)

market37%MISS

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MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $166.23, 8% from $153.92 at creation)

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