MISSBrier 0.139

Data-resolved: MSTR moved from 142.80 to 153.92 (7.79%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 154.22. Target not reached. High was 154.02.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctMSTR

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $154.22, 8% from $142.80 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.139.

Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium is bullish with 2 stable equilibria and 70% confidence (comprehensive legislation, institutional accumulation), and BTC's own 14-day expected move band (±8.7%) supports leveraged upside in the crypto-proxy equity.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$154.22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $166.23, 8% from $153.92 at creation)

market83%HIT

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $158.39, 6% from $168.50 at creation)

market82%HIT

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $154.22, 8% from $142.80 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture