HITBrier 0.031

Early-confirmed: MSTR hit target below 158.39 on 2026-09-25. Current price: 157.82 (started at 168.50).

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

SHORT correctMSTR

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $158.39, 6% from $168.50 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 82% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.031.

Risk-off regime (Fear and Greed 38, SPY/QQQ deeply oversold with no fundamental catalyst) plus BTC's elevated 5.5% 7d expected volatility band creates leveraged-equity downside risk for crypto-proxy names.

Probability: 82%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$158.39

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $166.23, 8% from $153.92 at creation)

market83%HIT

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $154.22, 8% from $142.80 at creation)

market37%MISS

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MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $158.39, 6% from $168.50 at creation)

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