HITBrier 0.154

Early-confirmed: XOM, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-03 through 2026-11-02. Target: above 168.93. Target hit on: 2026-10-09. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Market

LONGXOM

XOM will close at least 3% above its October 3, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 2, 2026 (target above $168.93, 3% from $164.01 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-03 at 61% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-10. Brier score 0.154.

Derived from: the contrarian oil trading action and the Bayesian Hormuz assessment's 67% escalation probability. Confidence is limited because no chokepoint closure is established, oil momentum is weak, and the WTI entry quote has uncertain units.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 2in 19d
Made: Oct 3

Price Target$168.93

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

ExxonMobil (XOM) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability) and a fragile OPEC+ cut equilibrium support elevated crude prices (target above $171.43, 5% from $163.27 at creation)

market78%MISS

XOM (Exxon Mobil) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $167.44, 5% from $159.47 at creation)

market44%HIT

Exxon Mobil (XOM) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven crude price support lifts major integrated energy producers (target above $165.85, 4% from $159.47 at creation)

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XOM will close at least 3% above its October 3, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 2, 2026 (target above $168.93, 3% from $164.01 at creation)

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