MISSBrier 0.067

Data-resolved: WFC moved from 89.97 to 90.29 (0.36%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-14. Target: above 93.57. Target not reached. High was 91.16.

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Market

LONG correctWFC

Wells Fargo (WFC) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $93.57, 4% from $89.97 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.067.

Fed Rate Cycle Pivot Bayesian equilibrium favors hawkish hold, which supports bank net-interest-margin expectations; combined with oversold technical conditions (F&G 38) supporting a rate-sensitive-sector bounce.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1415d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$93.57

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Wells Fargo (WFC) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $84.27, 5% from $88.71 at creation)

market70%HIT

WFC (Wells Fargo) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $78.62, 4% from $81.90 at creation)

market85%

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Wells Fargo (WFC) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $93.57, 4% from $89.97 at creation)

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