HITBrier 0.087

Early-confirmed: WFC hit target below 84.27 on 2026-09-22. Current price: 82.31 (started at 88.71).

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

SHORT correctWFC

Wells Fargo (WFC) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $84.27, 5% from $88.71 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 70% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.087.

Fed Rate Cycle bearish Nash equilibrium ('hawkish hold + guidance') combined with wartime risk-off deepening credit stress signals pressures bank net-interest-margin expectations and financial sector equities.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 29today
Made: Sep 15

Price Target$84.27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Wells Fargo (WFC) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $93.57, 4% from $89.97 at creation)

market26%MISS

WFC (Wells Fargo) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $78.62, 4% from $81.90 at creation)

market85%

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Wells Fargo (WFC) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $84.27, 5% from $88.71 at creation)

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