HITBrier 0.131

Early-confirmed: BNO, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-04 through 2026-10-18. Target: above 64.36. Target hit on: 2026-10-12. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Market

LONGBNO

BNO will close at least 2% above its October 4, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by October 18, 2026 (target above $64.36, 2% from $63.10 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-04 at 64% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-13. Brier score 0.131.

The Strait of Hormuz Bayesian analysis assigns 67% escalation probability, creating an oil-risk-premium case. Hormuz is not reported closed, and the oil-buy action has only 45% confidence.

Probability: 64%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 18in 5d
Made: Oct 4

Price Target$64.36

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

BNO (Brent oil ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $58.35, 4% from $56.11 at creation)

market47%HIT

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BNO will close at least 2% above its October 4, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by October 18, 2026 (target above $64.36, 2% from $63.10 at creation)

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