SMH will close below $583.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.
Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (gray-zone escalation, technology sector flagged, fragile 30% coalition stability) implies elevated semiconductor supply-chain risk premium distinct from the broader QQQ oversold-bounce thesis.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 9in 10d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.