SMH will close below $583.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (gray-zone escalation, technology sector flagged, fragile 30% coalition stability) implies elevated semiconductor supply-chain risk premium distinct from the broader QQQ oversold-bounce thesis.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 25

Price Target$583

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SMH will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $577.09, 5% from $607.46 at creation)

market83%

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close below $543.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market44%HIT

SMH will close below $550.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market40%HIT

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SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce from oversold conditions materializes despite the Taiwan Strait overhang (target above $589.69, 4% from $567.01 at creation)

market18%MISS

SMH will close below $583.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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