HITBrier 0.166

Early-confirmed: BTC hit target above 80000 on 2026-09-19. Current price: 81034.56 (started at 77386.26).

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Market

LONG correctBTC

BTC (Bitcoin) will close above $80,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 59% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-19. Brier score 0.166.

Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium remains bullish (2 stable equilibria, institutional accumulation, 70% confidence) and BTC has already confirmed strength above $77,500 despite the wartime risk-off backdrop, suggesting decoupling from equity capitulation; target sits within the 14d expected-move band (73291-81568).

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Price Target$80,000

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin (BTC) will close below $73,200 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market39%MISS

Bitcoin will close at or above $77,500 on at least one trading day before October 1, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?' as YES.

market76%HIT

Bitcoin will trade above $81,500 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium (institutional accumulation, 2 equilibria, bullish) drives risk appetite

market85%HIT

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BTC (Bitcoin) will close above $80,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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