MISSBrier 0.153

Data-resolved: BTC moved from 77216.42 to 84368.41 (9.26%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: below 73200. Target not reached. Low was 74944.59.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongBTC

Bitcoin (BTC) will close below $73,200 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.153.

Broader wartime risk-off correlation and equity capitulation-level RSI readings argue for spillover into crypto despite BTC's recent strength (confirmed close above $77,500); target sits at the lower bound of the 14d expected-move band (73,183-81,249), reflecting a contrarian but plausible pullback.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$73,200

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin will close at or above $77,500 on at least one trading day before October 1, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?' as YES.

market76%HIT

BTC (Bitcoin) will close above $80,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market59%HIT

BTC will close above $83,000 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%MISS

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Bitcoin (BTC) will close below $73,200 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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