HITBrier 0.055

Early-confirmed: BTC hit target above 77500 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 77144.61 (started at 76828.95).

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Market

LONG correctBTC

Bitcoin will close at or above $77,500 on at least one trading day before October 1, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?' as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 76% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-10. Brier score 0.055.

BTC's recent momentum (prior confirmed move from $63,895 to $77,674 within a single 14-day window) combined with proximity to target from the current $76,905.94 level supports a higher probability than the crowd's 50% pricing.

Probability: 76%
Timeframe: 21 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$77,500

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin (BTC) will close below $73,200 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market39%MISS

BTC will close above $83,000 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%MISS

BTC (Bitcoin) will close above $80,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market59%HIT

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BTC will close below $73,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market42%MISS

Bitcoin will close at or above $77,500 on at least one trading day before October 1, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?' as YES.

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