MISSBrier 0.175

Data-resolved: BTC moved from 79507.06 to 81530.00 (2.54%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 73000. Target not reached. Low was 74944.59.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongBTC

BTC will close below $73,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.175.

Wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, 80% escalation risk score) combined with Fed hawkish-hold Bayesian equilibrium historically compress risk-asset correlation with crypto, pressuring BTC down from current $79,507.

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$73,000

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin will dip to $55,000 or below on at least one day in September 2026.

market7%

Bitcoin (BTC) will trade above $82,000 on at least one day within 14 days, diverging from the Polymarket crowd's 2% implied probability for this exact threshold.

market68%MISS

BTC will close above $83,000 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%MISS

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BTC will close below $73,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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