MISSBrier 0.183

Data-resolved: BTC moved from 78580.50 to 75923.34 (-3.38%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16. Target: above 83000. Target not reached. High was 79818.34.

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

LONG wrongBTC

BTC will close above $83,000 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 43% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.183.

Bayesian Crypto Regulatory Clarity equilibrium remains bullish (2 stable equilibria, 70% confidence); catalyst here is short-term risk-asset stabilization around the Fed hawkish-hold decision rather than the previously denied longer-horizon institutional-inflow thesis.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$83,000

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin will close at or above $77,500 on at least one trading day before October 1, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?' as YES.

market76%HIT

BTC will close below $73,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market42%MISS

Bitcoin (BTC) will close below $73,200 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market39%MISS

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BTC will close above $83,000 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

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