MISSBrier 0.004

Data-resolved: BTC, touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-06 through 2026-09-30. Target: below 55000. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 83685.85 (2026-09-30).

Resolved Oct 1, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongBTC

Bitcoin will dip to $55,000 or below on at least one day in September 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 7% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-01. Brier score 0.004.

Mirrors Polymarket (YES 1%). BTC's 30-day regime-adjusted expected move is ±12.8% from $79,826, implying a floor near $69,630 — a drop to $55,000 (-31%) would far exceed the 90th-percentile move, consistent with the crowd's near-zero pricing.

Probability: 7%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 3016d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$55,000

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bitcoin (BTC) will trade above $82,000 on at least one day within 14 days, diverging from the Polymarket crowd's 2% implied probability for this exact threshold.

market68%MISS

BTC will close below $73,000 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market42%MISS

BTC will close above $83,000 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%MISS

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Bitcoin will dip to $55,000 or below on at least one day in September 2026.

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