UAL will close at least 3% below its October 12, 2026 price on at least one trading day by November 11, 2026 (target below $104.24, 3% from $107.46 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-12 at 63% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-11.

Derived from: the Bayesian Strait of Hormuz analysis's 67% escalation probability and the contrarian oil-buy action. The supplied intelligence does not establish a closure or sustained oil-price rise.

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 11in 29d
Made: Oct 12

Price Target$104.24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

United Airlines (UAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $108.67, 5% from $114.39 at creation)

market78%MISS

United Airlines (UAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $105.81, 5% from $111.38 at creation)

market41%MISS

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UAL will close at least 3% below its October 12, 2026 price on at least one trading day by November 11, 2026 (target below $104.24, 3% from $107.46 at creation)

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