Derived from: the active thesis's oil-supply risk and the Bayesian Hormuz-crisis escalation estimate. The competing reserve-release scenario and questionable WTI technical quote temper confidence.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 21in 29d
Made: Oct 22

Price Target$65.21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $63.92, 4% from $61.46 at creation)

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OXY (Occidental Petroleum) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $63.04, 5% from $60.04 at creation)

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