The US Navy will publicly confirm that one of its warships escorted a commercial vessel through the Bab el-Mandeb strait by November 6, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-07 at 6% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-06.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis game-theory outcome of US naval convoy escorts amid continued Houthi support.

Probability: 6%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 6in 24d
Made: Oct 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The US Navy will publicly confirm that one of its warships escorted a commercial vessel through the Bab el-Mandeb strait by November 6, 2026.

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