The US military will publicly confirm intercepting a Houthi missile or drone over the Red Sea by November 6, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-07 at 37% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-06.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis game-theory scenario of continued Houthi support and US naval escorts; no new attack is established by the supplied signals.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 6in 24d
Made: Oct 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Navy will publicly confirm that one of its warships escorted a commercial vessel through the Bab el-Mandeb strait by November 6, 2026.

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The US military will publicly confirm intercepting a Houthi missile or drone over the Red Sea by November 6, 2026.

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