The U.S. Treasury will announce an increase in the auction size of at least one Treasury-bill maturity in its November 2026 quarterly refunding announcement by November 7, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-08 at 40% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-07.

The U.S. Treasury supply-crisis game model identifies front-loading short-term bills as the most likely Treasury strategy. The claim tests one issuance decision rather than a subsequent market reaction.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 7in 25d
Made: Oct 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The U.S. Commerce Department will announce a new export restriction specifically covering semiconductor equipment shipments to China by November 7, 2026.

geopolitical15%

The US military will publicly confirm intercepting a Houthi missile or drone over the Red Sea by November 6, 2026.

geopolitical37%

The US Navy will publicly confirm that one of its warships escorted a commercial vessel through the Bab el-Mandeb strait by November 6, 2026.

geopolitical6%

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The U.S. Treasury will announce an increase in the auction size of at least one Treasury-bill maturity in its November 2026 quarterly refunding announcement by November 7, 2026.

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