VIXY (volatility ETF) will close at least 12% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $19.38, 12% from $17.30 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 19% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-19. Brier score 0.036.

The Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence (intensity 5/5, 2026-09-19) coincides with the Yom Kippur War historical parallel and an 80% overall escalation risk score; deep SPY/QQQ RSI capitulation (27-28) without a VIX print flagged as a data gap suggests implied volatility could reprice sharply on any confirmed incident.

Probability

19%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 1910d ago

Made

Sep 12

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.