Volatility ETF VIXY will close at least 15% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $19.55, 15% from $17.00 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 16% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-13. Brier score 0.024.

Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict favored, bearish 60% confidence) combined with 67% Hormuz escalation probability and SPY/QQQ deep oversold MACD readings creates conditions for a volatility spike absent a stabilizing catalyst.

Probability

16%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Sep 1316d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.