VIXY will close at least 10% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $18.47, 10% from $16.79 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 81% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Wartime regime with 80% overall escalation risk score, Hormuz escalation probability of 67%, and Fearon failures on Iran-nuclear and US-China trade argue for volatility repricing even absent a live VIX feed; VIXY is the tradeable proxy.

Probability: 81%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$18.47

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

VIXY (volatility ETF) will close at least 12% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $19.38, 12% from $17.30 at creation)

market19%MISS

Volatility ETF VIXY will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $16.67, 5% from $17.55 at creation)

market35%MISS

Volatility ETF VIXY will close at least 15% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $19.55, 15% from $17.00 at creation)

market16%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

VIXY will close at least 10% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $18.47, 10% from $16.79 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture