MISSBrier 0.120

Data-resolved: VIXY moved from 17.55 to 17.53 (-0.09%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16. Target: below 16.67. Target not reached. Low was 16.81.

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

SHORT correctVIXY

Volatility ETF VIXY will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $16.67, 5% from $17.55 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.120.

Red-team analysis correctly notes SPY/QQQ RSI readings (27.3/28.4) sit in the bottom decile of historical readings, historically preceding sharp mean-reversion bounces that compress near-term implied volatility even absent a durable fundamental catalyst.

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$16.67

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

VIXY (volatility ETF) will close at least 12% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $19.38, 12% from $17.30 at creation)

market19%MISS

Volatility ETF VIXY will close at least 15% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target above $19.55, 15% from $17.00 at creation)

market16%MISS

VIXY will close at least 10% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $18.47, 10% from $16.79 at creation)

market81%

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Volatility ETF VIXY will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days (target below $16.67, 5% from $17.55 at creation)

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