A commercial vessel will be struck by a projectile in the Red Sea in a new attack after October 21, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-21 at 12% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-20.

Red Sea Shipping Crisis game-theory scenario identifies continued Houthi support as the most likely posture. This forecasts one direct shipping incident, not a subsequent government response.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 20in 30d
Made: Oct 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

2026 Balance of Power will be R Senate, R House.

geopolitical10%

Saudi Arabia's energy ministry will publicly announce a voluntary crude-oil production cut by November 19, 2026.

geopolitical32%

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs will publicly issue a diplomatic protest to China concerning conduct in the South China Sea by November 19, 2026.

geopolitical23%

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A commercial vessel will be struck by a projectile in the Red Sea in a new attack after October 21, 2026.

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