2026 Balance of Power will be R Senate, R House.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-21 at 10% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-04.

Crowd market 562831 prices this exact November 4 outcome at 9%. The active US midterm-election signal and knowledge-bank entry on 2025–2026 redistricting provide limited grounds for a modestly higher probability.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 4in 14d
Made: Oct 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

A commercial vessel will be struck by a projectile in the Red Sea in a new attack after October 21, 2026.

geopolitical12%

Saudi Arabia's energy ministry will publicly announce a voluntary crude-oil production cut by November 19, 2026.

geopolitical32%

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs will publicly issue a diplomatic protest to China concerning conduct in the South China Sea by November 19, 2026.

geopolitical23%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

2026 Balance of Power will be R Senate, R House.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture