The Philippine Coast Guard will publicly report a collision involving one of its vessels and a Chinese government vessel in the South China Sea by November 18, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-19 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-18.

Derived from: China PLA actor intelligence describing sustained pressure at Huangyan Island and the Bayesian Taiwan Strait assessment's 53% escalation probability. Those signals support maritime friction, though not this specific collision.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 18in 30d
Made: Oct 19

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The Philippine Coast Guard will publicly report a collision involving one of its vessels and a Chinese government vessel in the South China Sea by November 18, 2026.

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