Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-16 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-29.

Crowd market 2589810 prices this exact outcome at 0%. The Fed Rate Cycle Pivot game instead identifies a hawkish hold as its most likely outcome.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 29in 13d
Made: Oct 16

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US House of Representatives will pass cryptocurrency market-structure legislation by January 13, 2027.

geopolitical30%

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its October 2026 meeting.

geopolitical28%

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will publicly announce a naval exercise in the Persian Gulf by October 28, 2026.

geopolitical49%

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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

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